Australia's NOM Number: A Straight Guide for South Africans Planning the Move

News · 2026-08-26 · 5 min read

Three letters keep coming up whenever Australian politicians talk about migration: NOM, or Net Overseas Migration. Every party quotes it, every party argues about it, and few explain it the same way. If you are heading to Australia on a student visa, a skilled visa or a working holiday, it pays to know what the figure counts. It also helps you see which visa types are most likely to change next.

How the Count Works

Strip away the politics and the idea is simple. NOM takes everyone who arrives in Australia and stays for at least a year, then subtracts everyone who leaves to live overseas. The detail underneath is where it gets more complicated.

The figure is calculated using a 12/16-month rule. A person does not need to stay 12 months without a break. They are counted if they spend 12 months living in Australia within any 16-month window, even across several separate visits. A student who flies home for a month and then comes back is still counted, as long as the total time in the country adds up.

Not only visa holders

Many people assume NOM only tracks foreigners. It does not. Returning Australian citizens and permanent residents are part of it, and so are New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. Both groups travel largely without visas, so no government can easily control their numbers through visa rules. Diplomats and their families are left out completely. Short-term workers on schemes like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, which brings farm workers from the Pacific for spells as short as a few months, may or may not count. It depends only on how long their placement lasts.

Forecasts Versus What Actually Happened

The latest figures put NOM at roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025. That is a big drop from the post-pandemic peak of around 556,000 in 2023. It is still well above what the government itself had projected. Treasury expects the figure to fall to 225,000 by the 2027–28 financial year. In recent years, though, its forecasts have kept coming in below the real number. That gap is a big reason NOM has become so heated politically. Promising a target is easy. Reaching it is hard when so much of the movement comes from returning citizens and New Zealanders, not from visa decisions.

Who Made Up the 2024–25 Arrivals

The breakdown by group tells you more than the total does. In the 2024–25 financial year, arrivals looked like this:

International students: around 157,000, the largest single group, most of them in higher education.
Skilled visa holders (permanent and temporary together): roughly 86,000.
Working holiday-makers: close to 78,000.
Family reunion visas: around 24,000.
Humanitarian visas: just under 15,000.
Australian citizens coming home: 64,000.
New Zealand citizens: 53,000.

Those last two groups sit almost completely outside the reach of visa policy.

Each Party's Promise, Compared

All the major parties now say they will bring NOM down. How clearly they explain the plan differs a great deal.

Labor and its enforcement focus

Labor has in effect taken Treasury's projection of 225,000 by 2028 as its working target. Its focus is enforcement rather than broad visa cuts. That means making sure temporary visa holders leave when their visas run out, and slowing the processing of working holiday and skilled visa applications for now.

The Coalition and its housing link

The Coalition has not named a firm number. It wants any future cap tied to how quickly housing is built, with hints that the figure could end up somewhere under 200,000. One senator suggested 180,000, aimed at working holiday, student and some skilled visas. Others in the party quickly stepped away from that idea, mainly because so many regional and rural employers rely on working holiday-makers for seasonal labour.

One Nation and its mixed messages

One Nation has publicly committed to a NOM target of 130,000. Its message has not been consistent. A newer MP said the party's "real" number, once PALM workers and aged care nurses were added back in, could be closer to Treasury's 225,000 forecast. Senior figures then walked that back and repeated 130,000 as the official line. The party has flagged graduate visas, international student numbers and a tighter skilled migration list for cuts.

Planning Your Move With This in Mind

The NOM headline itself will not decide your application. What matters more is which visa types are under pressure. Student visas, graduate visas, working holiday visas and parts of the skilled list are all being looked at hard by politicians. That makes processing times, eligibility rules and annual caps in those streams more likely to move soon than family reunion or humanitarian intake.

Actual migration numbers have often landed far from government projections. So treat any announced "target" as a direction of travel, not a guarantee. Watch the policy detail when it is released, and pay less attention to the speeches.

For South African tradespeople and professionals, the sensible approach is to keep your paperwork in order while the debate plays out. Have your qualifications, trade certificates and a SAPS police clearance certificate ready if your visa asks for one, and check the rules for your visa type before you apply.

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